hailfinder {bnlearn} R Documentation

The HailFinder weather forecast system (synthetic) data set

Description

Hailfinder is a Bayesian network designed to forecast severe summer hail in northeastern Colorado.

Usage

data(hailfinder)

Format

The hailfinder data set contains the following 56 variables:

  • N07muVerMo (10.7mu vertical motion): a four-level factor with levels StrongUp, WeakUp, Neutral and Down.

  • SubjVertMo (subjective judgment of vertical motion): a four-level factor with levels StrongUp, WeakUp, Neutral and Down.

  • QGVertMotion (quasigeostrophic vertical motion): a four-level factor with levels StrongUp, WeakUp, Neutral and Down.

  • CombVerMo (combined vertical motion): a four-level factor with levels StrongUp, WeakUp, Neutral and Down.

  • AreaMesoALS (area of meso-alpha): a four-level factor with levels StrongUp, WeakUp, Neutral and Down.

  • SatContMoist (satellite contribution to moisture): a four-level factor with levels VeryWet, Wet, Neutral and Dry.

  • RaoContMoist (reading at the forecast center for moisture): a four-level factor with levels VeryWet, Wet, Neutral and Dry.

  • CombMoisture (combined moisture): a four-level factor with levels VeryWet, Wet, Neutral and Dry.

  • AreaMoDryAir (area of moisture and adry air): a four-level factor with levels VeryWet, Wet, Neutral and Dry.

  • VISCloudCov (visible cloud cover): a three-level factor with levels Cloudy, PC and Clear.

  • IRCloudCover (infrared cloud cover): a three-level factor with levels Cloudy, PC and Clear.

  • CombClouds (combined cloud cover): a three-level factor with levels Cloudy, PC and Clear.

  • CldShadeOth (cloud shading, other): a three-level factor with levels Cloudy, PC and Clear.

  • AMInstabMt (AM instability in the mountains): a three-level factor with levels None, Weak and Strong.

  • InsInMt (instability in the mountains): a three-level factor with levels None, Weak and Strong.

  • WndHodograph (wind hodograph): a four-level factor with levels DCVZFavor, StrongWest, Westerly and Other.

  • OutflowFrMt (outflow from mountains): a three-level factor with levels None, Weak and Strong.

  • MorningBound (morning boundaries): a three-level factor with levels None, Weak and Strong.

  • Boundaries (boundaries): a three-level factor with levels None, Weak and Strong.

  • CldShadeConv (cloud shading, convection): a three-level factor with levels None, Some and Marked.

  • CompPlFcst (composite plains forecast): a three-level factor with levels IncCapDecIns, LittleChange and DecCapIncIns.

  • CapChange (capping change): a three-level factor with levels Decreasing, LittleChange and Increasing.

  • LoLevMoistAd (low-level moisture advection): a four-level factor with levels StrongPos, WeakPos, Neutral and Negative.

  • InsChange (instability change): three-level factor with levels Decreasing, LittleChange and Increasing.

  • MountainFcst (mountains (region 1) forecast): a three-level factor with levels XNIL, SIG and SVR.

  • Date (date): a six-level factor with levels May15_Jun14, Jun15_Jul1, Jul2_Jul15, Jul16_Aug10, Aug11_Aug20 and Aug20_Sep15.

  • Scenario (scenario): an eleven-level factor with levels A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J and K.

  • ScenRelAMCIN (scenario relevant to AM convective inhibition): a two-level factor with levels AB and CThruK.

  • MorningCIN (morning convective inhibition): a four-level factor with levels None, PartInhibit, Stifling and TotalInhibit.

  • AMCINInScen (AM convective inhibition in scenario): a three-level factor with levels LessThanAve, Average and MoreThanAve.

  • CapInScen (capping withing scenario): a three-level factor with levels LessThanAve, Average and MoreThanAve.

  • ScenRelAMIns (scenario relevant to AM instability): a six-level factor with levels ABI, CDEJ, F, G, H and K.

  • LIfr12ZDENSd (LI from 12Z DEN sounding): a four-level factor with levels LIGt0, N1GtLIGt_4, N5GtLIGt_8 and LILt_8.

  • AMDewptCalPl (AM dewpoint calculations, plains): a three-level factor with levels Instability, Neutral and Stability.

  • AMInsWliScen (AM instability within scenario): a three-level factor with levels LessUnstable, Average and MoreUnstable.

  • InsSclInScen (instability scaling within scenario): a three-level factor with levels LessUnstable, Average and MoreUnstable.

  • ScenRel34 (scenario relevant to regions 2/3/4): a five-level factor with levels ACEFK, B, D, GJ and HI.

  • LatestCIN (latest convective inhibition): a four-level factor with levels None, PartInhibit, Stifling and TotalInhibit.

  • LLIW (LLIW severe weather index): a four-level factor with levels Unfavorable, Weak, Moderate and Strong.

  • CurPropConv (current propensity to convection): a four-level factor with levels None, Slight, Moderate and Strong.

  • ScnRelPlFcst (scenario relevant to plains forecast): an eleven-level factor with levels A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J and K.

  • PlainsFcst (plains forecast): a three-level factor with levels XNIL, SIG and SVR.

  • N34StarFcst (regions 2/3/4 forecast): a three-level factor with levels XNIL, SIG and SVR.

  • R5Fcst (region 5 forecast): a three-level factor with levels XNIL, SIG and SVR.

  • Dewpoints (dewpoints): a seven-level factor with levels LowEverywhere, LowAtStation, LowSHighN, LowNHighS, LowMtsHighPl, HighEverywher, Other.

  • LowLLapse (low-level lapse rate): a four-level factor with levels CloseToDryAd, Steep, ModerateOrLe and Stable.

  • MeanRH (mean relative humidity): a three-level factor with levels VeryMoist, Average and Dry.

  • MidLLapse (mid-level lapse rate): a three-level factor with levels CloseToDryAd, Steep and ModerateOrLe.

  • MvmtFeatures (movement of features): a four-level factor with levels StrongFront, MarkedUpper, OtherRapid and NoMajor.

  • RHRatio (realtive humidity ratio): a three-level factor with levels MoistMDryL, DryMMoistL and other.

  • SfcWndShfDis (surface wind shifts and discontinuities): a seven-level factor with levels DenvCyclone, E_W_N, E_W_S, MovigFtorOt, DryLine, None and Other.

  • SynForcng (synoptic forcing): a five-level factor with levels SigNegative, NegToPos, SigPositive, PosToNeg and LittleChange.

  • TempDis (temperature discontinuities): a four-level factor with levels QStationary, Moving, None, Other.

  • WindAloft (wind aloft): a four-level factor with levels LV, SWQuad, NWQuad, AllElse.

  • WindFieldMt (wind fields, mountains): a two-level factor with levels Westerly and LVorOther.

  • WindFieldPln (wind fields, plains): a six-level factor with levels LV, DenvCyclone, LongAnticyc, E_NE, SEquad and WidespdDnsl.

Note

The complete BN can be downloaded from http://www.bnlearn.com/bnrepository.

Source

Abramson B, Brown J, Edwards W, Murphy A, Winkler RL (1996). "Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather". International Journal of Forecasting, 12(1):57–71.

Examples

# load the data.
data(hailfinder)
# create and plot the network structure.
modelstring = paste0("[N07muVerMo][SubjVertMo][QGVertMotion][SatContMoist][RaoContMoist]",
  "[VISCloudCov][IRCloudCover][AMInstabMt][WndHodograph][MorningBound][LoLevMoistAd][Date]",
  "[MorningCIN][LIfr12ZDENSd][AMDewptCalPl][LatestCIN][LLIW]",
  "[CombVerMo|N07muVerMo:SubjVertMo:QGVertMotion][CombMoisture|SatContMoist:RaoContMoist]",
  "[CombClouds|VISCloudCov:IRCloudCover][Scenario|Date][CurPropConv|LatestCIN:LLIW]",
  "[AreaMesoALS|CombVerMo][ScenRelAMCIN|Scenario][ScenRelAMIns|Scenario][ScenRel34|Scenario]",
  "[ScnRelPlFcst|Scenario][Dewpoints|Scenario][LowLLapse|Scenario][MeanRH|Scenario]",
  "[MidLLapse|Scenario][MvmtFeatures|Scenario][RHRatio|Scenario][SfcWndShfDis|Scenario]",
  "[SynForcng|Scenario][TempDis|Scenario][WindAloft|Scenario][WindFieldMt|Scenario]",
  "[WindFieldPln|Scenario][AreaMoDryAir|AreaMesoALS:CombMoisture]",
  "[AMCINInScen|ScenRelAMCIN:MorningCIN][AMInsWliScen|ScenRelAMIns:LIfr12ZDENSd:AMDewptCalPl]",
  "[CldShadeOth|AreaMesoALS:AreaMoDryAir:CombClouds][InsInMt|CldShadeOth:AMInstabMt]",
  "[OutflowFrMt|InsInMt:WndHodograph][CldShadeConv|InsInMt:WndHodograph][MountainFcst|InsInMt]",
  "[Boundaries|WndHodograph:OutflowFrMt:MorningBound][N34StarFcst|ScenRel34:PlainsFcst]",
  "[CompPlFcst|AreaMesoALS:CldShadeOth:Boundaries:CldShadeConv][CapChange|CompPlFcst]",
  "[InsChange|CompPlFcst:LoLevMoistAd][CapInScen|CapChange:AMCINInScen]",
  "[InsSclInScen|InsChange:AMInsWliScen][R5Fcst|MountainFcst:N34StarFcst]",
  "[PlainsFcst|CapInScen:InsSclInScen:CurPropConv:ScnRelPlFcst]")
dag = model2network(modelstring)
## Not run: graphviz.plot(dag, shape = "ellipse")